Evaluating only Chekout’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Competition as the #1 likely cause. That’s exactly how it died.
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
Chekout built a buy-now-pay-later checkout solution for Chilean e-commerce merchants. After raising $12M, MercadoLibre's Mercado Crédito launched BNPL functionality embedded directly into MercadoLibre's marketplace — where most Chilean e-commerce happens. Simultaneously Falabella launched CMR Cuotas for its marketplace. Chekout's addressable market collapsed to independent stores without marketplace presence. Unable to raise a Series B, it shut down in 2022.
Lesson
“BNPL for e-commerce is dependent on where e-commerce happens. In markets where one marketplace controls 60%+ of volume, when that marketplace integrates BNPL natively, your TAM shrinks to 40% overnight. Build for that scenario from day one.”
FAQ
Why did Chekout fail?
Chekout, a Chilean BNPL startup with $12M raised, shut down in 2022 after MercadoLibre integrated BNPL natively into its marketplace. This collapsed Chekout's addressable market to independent stores without marketplace presence.