All autopsies

// STARTUP COMPARISON

Chekout vs Silicon Valley Bank

Chekout failed in 2022 due to Competition. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.

METRIC🔥 Chekout🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
SectorFintechFintech
CountryChileUSA
Founded20191983
Died20222023
Raised$12MPublic company (SIVB)
Peak$12M raised$209B assets
Primary CauseCompetitionUnit Economics

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 Chekout
Competition
Chekout built a buy-now-pay-later checkout solution for Chilean e-commerce merchants. After raising $12M, MercadoLibre's Mercado Crédito launched BNPL functionality embedded directly into MercadoLibre's marketplace — where most Chilean e-commerce happens. Simultaneously Falabella launched CMR Cuotas for its marketplace. Chekout's addressable market collapsed to independent stores without marketplace presence. Unable to raise a Series B, it shut down in 2022.
// LESSON
BNPL for e-commerce is dependent on where e-commerce happens. In markets where one marketplace controls 60%+ of volume, when that marketplace integrates BNPL natively, your TAM shrinks to 40% overnight. Build for that scenario from day one.
🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
Unit Economics
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023 after a bank run driven by duration mismatch. SVB had invested deposits in long-duration bonds during low-rate periods. When rates rose, those bonds lost value. SVB announced a $1.8B loss on bond sales and a capital raise — triggering a $42B bank run in 24 hours. The FDIC seized SVB on March 10, 2023 — the second-largest bank failure in US history.
// LESSON
Asset-liability duration matching is not optional for banks. Investing short-term deposits in long-term bonds is a structural bet against rising rates. SVB had $80B in long-duration bonds when the Fed began the fastest rate rise cycle in 40 years.

// IN THE SIMULATION

Chekout triggers BNPL_MARKETPLACE_INTEGRATION — the simulation models standalone BNPL providers as existentially threatened when the dominant marketplace integrates BNPL natively. The addressable market shrinks to independent commerce overnight.

SVB triggers DURATION_MISMATCH_BANK_RUN — the simulation models banks with long-duration bond portfolios as having existential rate sensitivity. A 400bps rate rise on a long-duration portfolio creates mark-to-market losses that exceed capital when forced to sell.

// EXPLORE FURTHER