Evaluating only Greensill Capital’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Fraud as the #1 likely cause. That’s exactly how it died.
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Documented cause
Greensill Capital provided supply-chain financing by buying invoices and bundling them as bonds sold via Credit Suisse funds. The model relied on trade credit insurance that was cancelled in March 2021. Without insurance the structure collapsed. Greensill filed for insolvency in March 2021. Credit Suisse lost $10B. Lex Greensill faced fraud investigations. David Cameron, who lobbied for Greensill, faced public scrutiny.
Lesson
“A business model with a single external dependency that can be cancelled overnight is a scheduled failure. Diversify or accept the concentration risk explicitly.”
FAQ
Why did Greensill Capital collapse?
Greensill Capital collapsed in March 2021 when its trade credit insurance was cancelled. The entire business model depended on this insurance to package supply-chain invoices as bonds. Credit Suisse froze $10B in Greensill-linked funds immediately after.
Was David Cameron involved in Greensill?
Yes. Former UK Prime Minister David Cameron was an advisor to Greensill and lobbied UK government ministers on its behalf. He faced significant public and parliamentary scrutiny following Greensill's collapse.