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// STARTUP COMPARISON

Greensill Capital vs Silicon Valley Bank

Greensill Capital failed in 2021 due to Fraud. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.

METRIC🔥 Greensill Capital🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
SectorFintechFintech
CountryUKUSA
Founded20111983
Died20212023
Raised$1.7BPublic company (SIVB)
Peak$7B valuation$209B assets
Primary CauseFraudUnit Economics

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 Greensill Capital
Fraud
Greensill Capital provided supply-chain financing by buying invoices and bundling them as bonds sold via Credit Suisse funds. The model relied on trade credit insurance that was cancelled in March 2021. Without insurance the structure collapsed. Greensill filed for insolvency in March 2021. Credit Suisse lost $10B. Lex Greensill faced fraud investigations. David Cameron, who lobbied for Greensill, faced public scrutiny.
// LESSON
A business model with a single external dependency that can be cancelled overnight is a scheduled failure. Diversify or accept the concentration risk explicitly.
🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
Unit Economics
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023 after a bank run driven by duration mismatch. SVB had invested deposits in long-duration bonds during low-rate periods. When rates rose, those bonds lost value. SVB announced a $1.8B loss on bond sales and a capital raise — triggering a $42B bank run in 24 hours. The FDIC seized SVB on March 10, 2023 — the second-largest bank failure in US history.
// LESSON
Asset-liability duration matching is not optional for banks. Investing short-term deposits in long-term bonds is a structural bet against rising rates. SVB had $80B in long-duration bonds when the Fed began the fastest rate rise cycle in 40 years.

// IN THE SIMULATION

Greensill triggers SINGLE_DEPENDENCY_FAILURE when INSURANCE_CANCELLED fires. The simulation flags business models with a single point of failure — one cancelled contract should never be able to destroy a $7B company overnight.

SVB triggers DURATION_MISMATCH_BANK_RUN — the simulation models banks with long-duration bond portfolios as having existential rate sensitivity. A 400bps rate rise on a long-duration portfolio creates mark-to-market losses that exceed capital when forced to sell.

// EXPLORE FURTHER

Full Greensill Capital autopsy →Full Silicon Valley Bank autopsy →More Fraud failures →All Fintech autopsies →