Evaluating only Voyager Digital’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: Fraud.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
Voyager Digital founded
FRAUD EXPOSURE
Fraud allegations surface
SHUTDOWN
Sudden Collapse: Voyager Digital ceases operations
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
Voyager Digital was a publicly listed crypto brokerage offering trading and high-yield interest accounts. It made an unsecured loan of approximately $650M to hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC). When 3AC collapsed in June 2022 following the Terra/Luna contagion, the loan became uncollectible. Voyager could not meet customer withdrawal requests and filed Chapter 11 in July 2022. The collapse wiped out retail investors who believed their accounts were protected.
Lesson
“Unsecured loans to counterparties in the same ecosystem are not diversification — they are correlated risk. When the ecosystem collapses, every unsecured creditor fails together.”