Evaluating only ResilientEarth’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Competition as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: Regulation.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
Founded in Munich by Marcus Bauer to provide physical climate risk scoring to European financial institutions.
FUNDING
Raised €9M from HV Capital; signed LOIs with three German Landesbanken pending ECB mandate enforcement.
REGULATORY ACTION
ECB delayed mandatory climate disclosure timeline by 18 months, causing three LOI counterparties to withdraw.
BANKRUPTCY
Filed for insolvency with €2.1M in liabilities after pivot to voluntary ESG markets failed to generate revenue.
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
ResilientEarth raised €9M in 2021 from HV Capital to sell climate physical risk scoring to European banks under ECB climate stress-test mandates. When the ECB delayed its mandatory climate disclosure timeline in late 2022, demand collapsed immediately. CEO Marcus Bauer burned through reserves trying to pivot to voluntary ESG reporting markets but failed to close any contracts above €50K. The company entered insolvency in May 2023 with €2.1M in liabilities.
Lesson
“Regulatory-dependent revenue is a single point of failure; always build parallel commercial demand.”