Evaluating only Ouaga Express’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: External shock.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
MILESTONE
CRISIS
SHUTDOWN
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Documented cause
Ouaga Express built a last-mile parcel and food delivery platform in Ouagadougou, capitalising on Burkina Faso's growing urban middle class and mobile money penetration. The company operated 80 motorcycles and processed 500+ daily deliveries. However, Burkina Faso's deteriorating security situation from 2021 — jihadist insurgency spreading toward urban areas — made evening and outlying district deliveries dangerous for riders. Curfews imposed in 2022 eliminated evening delivery windows. The security environment made rider recruitment impossible and investor confidence collapsed. The company shut down in mid-2022.
Lesson
“Delivery businesses in politically unstable regions require insurgency risk modelling as a scenario in the financial model — the "security crisis" scenario must have a viable response plan.”