Evaluating only Lendico Brazil’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Competition as the #1 likely cause. That’s exactly how it died.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
MILESTONE
CRISIS
SHUTDOWN
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
Lendico was a German P2P lending startup founded by Rocket Internet in 2013 that expanded aggressively into Brazil, Australia, Spain, Poland, and South Africa. The Brazilian operation launched in 2015 targeting personal loans in a market where bank credit card rates exceeded 300% annually, creating apparent demand for alternatives. Brazil's operations grew to R$50M in disbursements but faced persistent unit economics challenges: default rates in Brazil's recession years (2015-2017) were far higher than in Europe, and the cost structure of operating a regulated lending business in a complex tax and compliance environment was underestimated. When ING acquired a controlling stake in Lendico in 2017 and consolidated its European strategy, all non-European markets including Brazil were wound down as part of a strategic refocus.
Lesson
“Global P2P lending rollouts from single-country HQ teams underestimate per-market default rate variance. Brazil is not Germany with reals instead of euros.”