Evaluating only Tulaa’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: External shock.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
Tulaa founded to bundle credit and agri-inputs for Kenyan and Tanzanian smallholders.
FUNDING
Raised $4.5M in seed and grant funding from Acumen, Gates Foundation-linked programs.
DOWN ROUND
Two drought seasons caused 40%+ default rates on farmer loans; Series A fundraise failed.
SHUTDOWN
Operations wound down; tech assets sold at a discount with no public announcement.
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
Tulaa, a Nairobi-based agri-input fintech founded by Nova Kolisnyk and Brian Dempsey, raised $4.5M to offer smallholder farmers in Kenya and Tanzania bundled credit, inputs, and market access via mobile. By 2021, loan default rates among smallholder borrowers exceeded projections due to two consecutive drought seasons. The company could not secure a Series A and quietly wound down operations in 2022, with its technology assets eventually acquired at a steep discount.
Lesson
“Agricultural credit models must integrate weather insurance from launch, not as an afterthought.”