Evaluating only Creditas (2022 crisis)’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. That’s exactly how it died.
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Documented cause
Creditas, Brazil's largest secured lending platform (home equity, auto-secured loans), raised $829M and reached a $4.8B valuation. Brazil's SELIC rate rising to 13.75% in 2022 dramatically increased Creditas's cost of capital while compressing net interest margins. The company laid off approximately 600 employees in 2022 and wrote down its internal valuation by approximately 50%, retrenching to its most profitable loan products.
Lesson
“Secured lending businesses are rate-sensitive in both directions. Low rates are a tailwind — borrow cheap, lend expensive. High rates are a headwind — borrow expensive, can't pass through to collateralized borrowers. Model the up-rate scenario before sizing the team.”
FAQ
What happened to Creditas in 2022?
Creditas, Brazil's secured lending unicorn with $829M raised, laid off 600 employees and wrote down its internal valuation by 50% in 2022 after Brazil's SELIC rate rose to 13.75%, compressing net interest margins.