Evaluating only ContraFect’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. That’s exactly how it died.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
ContraFect founded
DOWN ROUND
Down round or bridge financing
SHUTDOWN
Sudden Collapse: ContraFect ceases operations
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
ContraFect developed bacteriophage-derived lysin proteins as a novel antibiotic alternative to treat drug-resistant Staph aureus infections. It raised $125M and went public in 2014. Its lead compound SAL200 reached Phase 2/3 clinical trials. In 2022, ContraFect received a Complete Response Letter from FDA requesting additional clinical data — effectively a rejection that required a new trial. The cost of an additional Phase 3 trial was $50M+ and the company had insufficient capital. ContraFect shut down all operations in November 2022.
Lesson
“Phase 3 clinical stage biotechs that receive FDA Complete Response Letters face a binary outcome: either raise $50M+ on the strength of a rejected drug or shut down. For novel mechanism platforms with limited commercial validation, the fundraising window after an FDA rejection is often 30-60 days before cash runs out — insufficient time to raise at any valuation.”