Evaluating only Midpoint’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Competition as the #1 likely cause. That’s exactly how it died.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
Midpoint founded in London offering peer-to-peer FX matching at mid-market rates to eliminate bank spreads.
FUNDING
Raised £5M to build liquidity matching engine and FCA-regulated currency exchange infrastructure.
PIVOT
Revolut launched in July 2015 offering interbank FX rates via card; TransferWise scaled rapidly, eliminating Midpoint's target market.
SHUTDOWN
Midpoint ceased operations in 2018 after failing to achieve bilateral liquidity in the shadow of dominant competitors.
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
Midpoint was a UK-based peer-to-peer foreign exchange startup founded in 2013 that promised mid-market exchange rates by matching currency buyers with sellers directly, eliminating bank spreads. After raising £5M, the platform could not achieve the bilateral matching liquidity required to consistently offer competitive rates. TransferWise's rapid growth and Revolut's launch in 2015 killed the market gap Midpoint depended on. The company ceased operations in 2018 with minimal public announcement.
Lesson
“P2P FX matching requires enormous bilateral liquidity; well-funded rivals make it impossible to build.”