Evaluating only Aquinox Pharmaceuticals’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: Product failure.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
Founded in Vancouver, BC, to develop SHIP1 pathway modulators for inflammatory and urological diseases.
FUNDING
Raised $40M to fund Phase 2b trial of AQX-1125 in interstitial cystitis, a painful bladder condition.
PRODUCT LAUNCH
Phase 2b results showed AQX-1125 had no benefit on any endpoint vs placebo; stock collapsed 80% in one day.
SHUTDOWN
Aquinox completed full dissolution, returning remaining cash to shareholders after liquidating all assets.
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
Aquinox developed AQX-1125, a SHIP1 activator for interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome. In February 2017, Phase 2b results were announced as a complete failure — the drug showed no statistically significant benefit versus placebo on any primary or secondary endpoint. The stock fell 80% in a single day. Aquinox laid off 75% of staff and sold all assets to shareholders in a dissolution process completed by 2019.
Lesson
“Single-asset biotechs live and die by Phase 2b — always have a backup program before late-stage trials.”