Evaluating only TravelCuba’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Regulation as the #1 likely cause. That’s exactly how it died.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
FUNDING
MILESTONE
CRISIS
SHUTDOWN
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
TravelCuba built a US-friendly booking platform for Cuban casas particulares and private tours, capitalizing on the Obama-era normalization. The platform reached 1,200 bookings per month at peak as American tourists flooded Cuba in 2016-2018. Trump's June 2019 sanctions reversal banned most US group travel and cruise ships to Cuba under the OFAC Title III enforcement, eliminating 70% of TravelCuba's bookings within 60 days. European and Canadian demand could not compensate for the loss of the American market that the platform had been built around.
Lesson
“If your business model depends on US political policy toward a sanctioned country, model the reversal scenario with equal probability to the continuation scenario.”
Failure anatomy
Collapse type
Regulatory Kill
📉 MEDIUM
Hype cycle
Peak
Moat type
Relationships
Fatal mistake
US sanctions reversal eliminated primary tourist market