Evaluating only Transmetrics’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: Platform dependency.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
Asparuh Koev founds Transmetrics in Sofia, Bulgaria, to build predictive AI demand forecasting for European parcel and freight carriers.
FUNDING
Eleven Ventures leads €6M round; Transmetrics signs DSV and TNT as flagship enterprise clients and grows to 45 employees.
PIVOT
FedEx completes TNT acquisition in 2021; TNT contract terminated as FedEx consolidates vendors, removing 30% of Transmetrics' ARR overnight.
SHUTDOWN
Series B stalls in late 2021 as revenue drops 50%; Transmetrics dissolves in Q3 2022 affecting 35 employees in Sofia and Amsterdam.
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
Transmetrics, founded by Asparuh Koev in Sofia in 2014, raised €6M from Eleven Ventures and others to apply predictive AI analytics to freight and logistics demand forecasting for European parcel carriers and LTL operators. Early client wins included DSV and TNT. The 2021 FedEx acquisition of TNT disrupted two key contracts simultaneously. Revenue dropped 50% in 12 months. A planned Series B in late 2021 stalled and the company was dissolved by Q3 2022 with 35 employees affected.
Lesson
“Logistics AI startups with fewer than five enterprise clients face existential risk from any single M&A event among customers.”
Failure anatomy
Collapse type
Bankruptcy
📉 MEDIUM
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