Evaluating only Synata Bio’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. That’s exactly how it died.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
FUNDING
CRISIS
SHUTDOWN
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Documented cause
Synata Bio was a clinical-stage gene therapy company developing a one-time CRISPR-based treatment for a rare metabolic disorder affecting 1 in 50,000 newborns. The science was compelling: preclinical data showed 85% correction rates in animal models. The company raised $38M across two venture rounds and entered Phase I trials in 2021. But biotech timelines are unforgiving: Phase I extended by 18 months due to patient enrollment challenges in a rare-disease population, and the company's cash runway ran out before Phase II could begin. Two potential acquirers passed in 2022, citing the enrollment risk and the distance to an approvable data package. Synata Bio filed for Chapter 7 in early 2023, returning $2.1M to creditors on $38M raised.
Lesson
“Model your patient enrollment timeline conservatively and then multiply by two. If that extended timeline breaks your runway, the venture capital model is wrong for your program.”