// startup autopsy

South Pole

The $1B carbon empire that built its fortune on credits that never existed.

fraudFraud Explosion

Sudden collapse triggered by fraud exposure

Founded	2006
Closed	2023
Country	Switzerland
Sector	Cleantech
Founder	Renat Heuberger

// the model, blind

Evaluating only South Pole’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: Fraud.

Key Events Timeline

2006

FOUNDING

South Pole founded in Zurich as carbon project developer and offsetting advisory firm.

2021

PRODUCT LAUNCH

Kariba REDD+ project in Zimbabwe sold credits to major brands including Gucci, Nestlé, and McKinsey.

2023-08

FRAUD EXPOSURE

SourceMaterial investigation revealed Kariba credits overclaimed by hundreds of percent using inflated deforestation baselines.

2023-10

SHUTDOWN

CEO Heuberger resigned, IPO abandoned, major clients terminated contracts, company entered restructuring.

Full Analysis

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Documented cause

South Pole, the world's largest carbon offset developer, imploded in late 2023 when its $100M Kariba REDD+ project in Zimbabwe was exposed as massively overclaiming credits. CEO Renat Heuberger resigned in October 2023. Investigative outlet SourceMaterial revealed credits sold to Gucci, Nestle, and others were based on fraudulent baselines. The scandal triggered mass client departures and collapse of its planned IPO valuing the firm at over $1B.

Lesson

“Offset project developers must apply conservative baselines independently verified before selling at scale.”

Failure anatomy

Collapse type

Fraud Explosion

⚡ HIGH