Evaluating only SmartCredit CR’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Regulation as the #1 likely cause. That’s exactly how it died.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
Pablo Solano and Diana Aguilar co-found SmartCredit CR to digitize consumer lending in Costa Rica.
FUNDING
Raises $2.3M from IGNIA Partners; disburses $8M+ in loans by 2022.
DOWN ROUND
Inflation hits 12.1%; default rates surge to 28%, destroying loan book profitability.
REGULATORY ACTION
SUGEF opens data-sharing investigation; company collapses unable to absorb losses or raise capital.
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
SmartCredit CR, a San José lending fintech co-founded by Pablo Solano and Diana Aguilar in 2019, raised $2.3M from IGNIA Partners to provide instant consumer credit via app using alternative data scoring. The company disbursed over $8M in loans by 2022. However, default rates surged to 28% during Costa Rica's 2023 inflation spike, which hit 12.1% annually. The company's reserves were insufficient to absorb losses, and a SUGEF investigation into its data-sharing practices with third parties was opened in early 2024 before the company collapsed.
Lesson
“Alternative credit scoring fails in macro stress; model defaults under inflation before deploying at scale.”