Evaluating only Orchard’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. That’s exactly how it died.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
Orchard founded
LAYOFF
Market downturn forces cuts
DOWN ROUND
Down round or bridge financing
SHUTDOWN
Silent Shutdown: Orchard ceases operations
SHUTDOWN
Slow Death: Orchard ceases operations
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
Orchard offered a home trade-in program letting customers buy a new home before selling their old one, using a guaranteed offer to bridge the gap. The company raised ~$100M in equity and significant debt financing. The 2022 housing market correction inverted the model's assumptions: inventory sat longer, home prices dropped from peak levels, and the guaranteed offer became a liability. Orchard shut down its home-buying operations in May 2023 and sold remaining assets.
Lesson
“Guaranteed offers in real estate are short volatility bets. Model the downside scenario — what happens if prices drop 15% before you can exit the position.”