Evaluating only Lidya’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. That’s exactly how it died.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
FUNDING
CRISIS
SHUTDOWN
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
Lidya built a data-driven SME lending platform in Nigeria using alternative credit scoring from business bank account data. With $8M raised and backing from Allianz X and Omidyar, it issued thousands of working capital loans to Nigerian small businesses. But Nigeria's economic deterioration from 2022 — naira devaluation, fuel subsidy removal, and inflation — caused default rates among SME borrowers to spike sharply. Loan losses exceeded new originations and the platform wound down.
Lesson
“Nigerian fintech lenders must maintain portfolio concentration limits per sector and build rolling reserve funds before macro shocks hit — correlated defaults destroy undiversified portfolios.”