GreenHydrogenCL
Chile green hydrogen for the Atacama desert first-mover — theoretically competitive by 2030, but 2023 electrolyzer costs were $8-12/kg vs the $2/kg needed for mining competitiveness
Years-long decline before final shutdown · Fatal mistake: Chile green hydrogen national strategy (2020) set 25GW target by 2030. GreenHydrogenCL was a first-mover. Commercial green hydrogen requires $2/kg for mining sector competitiveness. Electrolyzer costs in 2021-2023 were $8-12/kg. Atacama solar for electrolysis theoretically competitive by 2030 but not 2023. Bridge financing required: 7+ years. No venture timeline fits.
// the model, blind
Evaluating only GreenHydrogenCL’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: Market timing.