Evaluating only EarthLens’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Competition as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: Regulation.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
EarthLens founded in São Paulo to detect illegal mining and deforestation using satellite imagery.
FUNDING
Raised R$28M from BNDES and Valor Capital; signed R$12M/year in federal government contracts.
REGULATORY ACTION
Bolsonaro administration policy change cancelled all federal environmental enforcement contracts.
ACQUISITION ATTEMPT
Sold satellite imagery assets to Embraer for R$4M; company dissolved after co-founder departed.
Full Analysis
Free · no account needed
Documented cause
EarthLens built satellite-based deforestation and illegal mining detection software for Brazilian government agencies and mining compliance teams. The company raised R$28M from BNDES and Valor Capital. In January 2022, a change in Brazil's federal environmental enforcement policy under the Bolsonaro administration eliminated key government contracts worth R$12M annually. Private mining clients did not compensate for the revenue loss. Co-founder Rodrigo Almeida departed in April 2022 and the company sold its satellite imagery assets to Embraer for R$4M in August 2022.
Lesson
“Government-dependent revenue in politically volatile markets creates catastrophic single-customer risk.”