Evaluating only DroughtWatch’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: Competition.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
DroughtWatch founded in Melbourne by Dr. Sarah Nguyen using MODIS satellite imagery for farm drought alerts.
FUNDING
Secured AUD 6.5M from CSIRO Innovation Fund; onboarded 200 farm subscribers across Queensland and NSW.
PIVOT
NASA MODIS sensor degradation forced costly pivot to Sentinel-2 data, blowing engineering budget.
SHUTDOWN
Failed to close Series A; shut down with 12 staff after losing 60% of subscriber base to free BOM tools.
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
DroughtWatch raised AUD 6.5M from CSIRO Innovation Fund in 2020 to sell satellite-derived drought prediction indices to Australian farmers. The product relied on NASA MODIS data that became less reliable from 2021 after sensor degradation. Competing free tools from the Bureau of Meteorology undercut pricing, and the company lost 60% of its 200-farm subscriber base by Q1 2022. Founder Dr. Sarah Nguyen failed to close a Series A before folding in November 2022.
Lesson
“Building on degrading third-party satellite data without backup sources is an existential technical risk.”