Evaluating only Coincheck’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Regulation as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: Security failure.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
Coincheck founded in Tokyo as cryptocurrency exchange and wallet service.
Hackers stole 523M NEM tokens (¥58B / $534M); exchange suspended withdrawals; CEO admitted lack of cold storage.
ACQUISITION ATTEMPT
Monex Group acquired Coincheck for ¥3.6B after FSA issued two business improvement orders.
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
On January 26, 2018, hackers stole 523 million NEM tokens worth ¥58 billion ($534 million) from Coincheck, making it the largest crypto theft in history at that time. Co-founder Koichiro Wada admitted the exchange lacked cold wallet storage and basic multi-signature security. Japan's FSA issued two business improvement orders; Monex Group acquired Coincheck in April 2018 for ¥3.6 billion, a fraction of its peak value.
Lesson
“Financial custodians must implement cold storage and multi-sig before scaling; negligence invites catastrophic theft.”