Evaluating only CleanMX’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Regulation as the #1 likely cause. That’s exactly how it died.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
FUNDING
MILESTONE
CRISIS
SHUTDOWN
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
CleanMX developed commercial and industrial solar installations in Mexico under long-term CFE (Comisión Federal de Electricidad) power purchase agreement contracts. The company had signed PPAs for 12 projects worth MXN 850M. AMLO's 2019-2021 energy reform package strengthened CFE's monopoly, halted new private renewable energy auctions, and retroactively challenged existing PPA terms as incompatible with energy sovereignty policies. Three of CleanMX's contracted projects were blocked from grid connection under new interconnection moratorium rules. Without bankable PPAs, project financing dried up.
Lesson
“For energy project development in Mexico, ensure PPAs are structured with international arbitration clauses (ICSID/UNCITRAL) before committing capital. Mexican domestic contract protection is insufficient when energy policy changes at the presidential level.”
Failure anatomy
Collapse type
Regulatory Kill
📉 MEDIUM
Hype cycle
Decline
Moat type
Relationships
Fatal mistake
AMLO energy reform reversed renewable energy policies and CFE contracts