Evaluating only CleanAR’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Regulation as the #1 likely cause. That’s exactly how it died.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
FUNDING
MILESTONE
CRISIS
SHUTDOWN
Full Analysis
Free · no account needed
Documented cause
CleanAR built a solar panel installation and financing business for commercial properties in Argentina, riding a wave of renewable energy subsidies under the Kirchner government. The company reached 40 commercial installations per month at peak, financed through USD-denominated equipment loans. When the Macri administration reversed energy subsidies in 2016-2017 and the peso devalued 40% against the dollar, the economics of solar financing collapsed overnight. CleanAR could not service its USD debt with peso revenues and could not pass the full cost increase to customers already squeezed by the macroeconomic crisis.
Lesson
“In markets with structural currency risk and policy volatility, avoid USD-denominated liabilities paired with local-currency revenues. The mismatch is a single-event company killer.”
Failure anatomy
Collapse type
Regulatory Kill
📉 MEDIUM
Hype cycle
Peak
Moat type
Relationships
Fatal mistake
Dependency on government subsidies reversed by policy change