Evaluating only Canva (early near-death)’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Competition as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: Ran out of cash.
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Documented cause
Canva, now one of the world's most valuable SaaS companies at $40B, nearly shut down in 2013 after Melanie Perkins received over 100 investor rejections. The company had $3M in seed funding but could not raise a Series A for months. Key hires were contingent on funding. Canva survived because Perkins refused to give up and eventually secured investment through a connection at a Silicon Valley event. The near-death experience defined Canva's capital efficiency culture.
Lesson
“The near-death experience is part of almost every great company's origin. What separates survivors from failures is not talent or idea quality — it is founder persistence past the point where rational actors would have quit.”
FAQ
Did Canva almost fail?
Yes. Canva's CEO Melanie Perkins received over 100 investor rejections before securing funding. In 2013 the company nearly ran out of money at seed stage. Canva survived through founder persistence and went on to reach a $40B valuation by 2021.