Evaluating only Bamako Mobile’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Competition as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: Macro / political.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
MILESTONE
CRISIS
SHUTDOWN
Full Analysis
Free · no account needed
Documented cause
Bamako Mobile built a mobile money platform targeting Mali's 80% unbanked population, leveraging the country's high mobile penetration to offer savings, transfers, and microloans. The company grew to 45,000 registered users by 2020 with backing from a European impact fund. Mali's military coup in August 2020, followed by a second coup in May 2021, triggered international sanctions that froze the BCEAO banking transfers the platform relied on. International investors withdrew, citing force majeure clauses, and the regulatory environment became unpredictable as the junta renegotiated financial agreements with France. Bamako Mobile ran out of operational capital by mid-2022 with no viable path to restart.
Lesson
“Build a political risk calendar into your fundraising plan. If your target country has had two coups in five years, model the scenario where international banking rails freeze completely.”