Evaluating only Aimmune Therapeutics’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: Market too small.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
Founded in Brisbane, CA, focused on oral immunotherapy for food allergies.
FUNDING
Raised $145M Series C to advance AR101 (Palforzia) through Phase 3 trials.
PRODUCT LAUNCH
FDA approved Palforzia, the first drug for peanut allergy; Nestlé acquired company for $2.6B.
SHUTDOWN
Nestlé shut down Aimmune after fewer than 1,000 patients enrolled commercially due to poor uptake.
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
Aimmune launched Palforzia (peanut allergy treatment) in January 2020 after FDA approval, but commercial uptake was devastatingly slow. Acquirer Nestlé Health Science paid $2.6B in 2020 but shut down operations in August 2021 after fewer than 1,000 patients enrolled, citing unsustainable commercialization costs and COVID-19 disruptions to allergy clinic visits.
Lesson
“FDA approval is just the beginning — commercial infrastructure and patient access are equally critical to survival.”