Evaluating only Agrocrea’s profile at its peak — without knowing the outcome — the model ranked Unit economics as the #1 likely cause. Documented cause: External shock.
Key Events Timeline
FOUNDING
Agrocrea founded to provide data-driven crop financing to southern Mexico smallholders.
FUNDING
Raised $6M with FICO participation; disbursed 3,000+ loans totaling $8M.
DOWN ROUND
Southern Mexico drought devastated harvest; loan defaults climbed to 42% of portfolio.
SHUTDOWN
Debt facility could not be refinanced; operations wound down entirely.
Full Analysis
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Documented cause
Agrocrea was a Mexican agri-fintech that provided crop financing to smallholder farmers in Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Chiapas using harvest data to underwrite loans. The startup raised $6M with backing from FICO and local impact investors. Despite disbursing over 3,000 loans totaling $8M, collection was catastrophically impacted by a drought affecting southern Mexico in 2020, with default rates climbing to 42%. The company could not refinance its debt facility and shut down in 2021.
Lesson
“Agricultural lending without crop insurance or weather derivatives is existential climate risk; parametric insurance must be built into the model.”