All autopsies

// STARTUP COMPARISON

Uno Home Loans vs Silicon Valley Bank

Uno Home Loans failed in 2023 due to Competition. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.

METRIC🔥 Uno Home Loans🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
SectorFintechFintech
CountryAustraliaUSA
Founded20161983
Died20232023
RaisedA$70MPublic company (SIVB)
PeakA$70M raised$209B assets
Primary CauseCompetitionUnit Economics

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 Uno Home Loans
Competition
Uno Home Loans built an online mortgage brokering platform for Australian home buyers. After raising A$70M, Australia's aggressive rate rises in 2022-2023 (RBA raised rates 13 times) caused property transaction volumes to drop sharply. Fewer home purchases meant fewer mortgages to broker. Uno's revenue collapsed and the company shut down in 2023.
// LESSON
Mortgage brokering businesses are a leveraged bet on property transaction volumes. 13 rate rises in 12 months reduces those volumes 40-60%. There is no product or marketing strategy that offsets a central bank that has closed the first-home buyer market.
🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
Unit Economics
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023 after a bank run driven by duration mismatch. SVB had invested deposits in long-duration bonds during low-rate periods. When rates rose, those bonds lost value. SVB announced a $1.8B loss on bond sales and a capital raise — triggering a $42B bank run in 24 hours. The FDIC seized SVB on March 10, 2023 — the second-largest bank failure in US history.
// LESSON
Asset-liability duration matching is not optional for banks. Investing short-term deposits in long-term bonds is a structural bet against rising rates. SVB had $80B in long-duration bonds when the Fed began the fastest rate rise cycle in 40 years.

// IN THE SIMULATION

Uno triggers MORTGAGE_VOLUME_RATE_COLLAPSE — the simulation models digital mortgage brokers as having revenue directly correlated with property transaction volumes. 13 consecutive rate rises eliminated the first-time buyer market that was Uno's primary customer.

SVB triggers DURATION_MISMATCH_BANK_RUN — the simulation models banks with long-duration bond portfolios as having existential rate sensitivity. A 400bps rate rise on a long-duration portfolio creates mark-to-market losses that exceed capital when forced to sell.

// EXPLORE FURTHER