All autopsies

// STARTUP COMPARISON

Tpaga vs Silicon Valley Bank

Tpaga failed in 2021 due to Competition. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.

METRIC🔥 Tpaga🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
SectorFintechFintech
CountryColombiaUSA
Founded20141983
Died20212023
Raised$15MPublic company (SIVB)
Peak2M users$209B assets
Primary CauseCompetitionUnit Economics

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 Tpaga
Competition
Tpaga was one of Colombia's first mobile payment apps, reaching 2M users. Bancolombia launched Nequi as a fully-funded neobank subsidiary in 2016, leveraging Bancolombia's 16M customer base and zero-marginal-cost acquisition. Daviplata, Davivienda's digital wallet, similarly used a captive bank customer base. Tpaga could not match the customer acquisition advantages of bank-backed wallets and was acquired by AXA Colpatria in 2021, effectively ending its independent trajectory.
// LESSON
Independent payment wallets in markets where incumbent banks have captive digital distribution face a structural CAC disadvantage. The bank acquires at zero marginal cost from existing relationships. The startup pays $5-15 per user. The math doesn't work long-term.
🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
Unit Economics
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023 after a bank run driven by duration mismatch. SVB had invested deposits in long-duration bonds during low-rate periods. When rates rose, those bonds lost value. SVB announced a $1.8B loss on bond sales and a capital raise — triggering a $42B bank run in 24 hours. The FDIC seized SVB on March 10, 2023 — the second-largest bank failure in US history.
// LESSON
Asset-liability duration matching is not optional for banks. Investing short-term deposits in long-term bonds is a structural bet against rising rates. SVB had $80B in long-duration bonds when the Fed began the fastest rate rise cycle in 40 years.

// EXPLORE FURTHER