// STARTUP COMPARISON

Spin by Oxxo vs Silicon Valley Bank

Spin by Oxxo failed in 2023 due to Product Failure. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.

METRIC	🔥 Spin by Oxxo	🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
Sector	Fintech	Fintech
Country	Mexico	USA
Founded	2019	1983
Died	2023	2023
Raised	Internal (FEMSA)	Public company (SIVB)
Peak	3M users	$209B assets
Primary Cause	Product Failure	Unit Economics

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 Spin by Oxxo

Product Failure

Spin by Oxxo was a digital wallet launched by FEMSA leveraging Oxxo's 20,000 store network in Mexico. Despite reaching 3M users, the product struggled with low transaction frequency and could not compete with CoDi (Mexico's instant payment system) and Mercado Pago. FEMSA shut down Spin in 2023, citing the product's inability to achieve the engagement metrics needed to justify continued investment.

// LESSON
User registration is not user activation. A wallet with 3M registered users but 15% monthly activation is not a payments product — it is a loyalty card with extra steps.

🔥 Silicon Valley Bank

Unit Economics

Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023 after a bank run driven by duration mismatch. SVB had invested deposits in long-duration bonds during low-rate periods. When rates rose, those bonds lost value. SVB announced a $1.8B loss on bond sales and a capital raise — triggering a $42B bank run in 24 hours. The FDIC seized SVB on March 10, 2023 — the second-largest bank failure in US history.

// LESSON
Asset-liability duration matching is not optional for banks. Investing short-term deposits in long-term bonds is a structural bet against rising rates. SVB had $80B in long-duration bonds when the Fed began the fastest rate rise cycle in 40 years.

// IN THE SIMULATION

Spin triggers LOW_TRANSACTION_FREQUENCY — a failure mode where user acquisition succeeds but activation fails. The simulation tracks DAU/registered ratio and flags wallets where less than 20% of registered users transact monthly.

SVB triggers DURATION_MISMATCH_BANK_RUN — the simulation models banks with long-duration bond portfolios as having existential rate sensitivity. A 400bps rate rise on a long-duration portfolio creates mark-to-market losses that exceed capital when forced to sell.

// EXPLORE FURTHER

Full Spin by Oxxo autopsy →Full Silicon Valley Bank autopsy →More Product Failure failures →All Fintech autopsies →