// STARTUP COMPARISON
Kueski (2022 crisis) vs Silicon Valley Bank
Kueski (2022 crisis) failed in 2022 due to Unit Economics. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Both failed for the same reason — Unit Economics.
| METRIC | 🔥 Kueski (2022 crisis) | 🔥 Silicon Valley Bank |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Fintech | Fintech |
| Country | Mexico | USA |
| Founded | 2012 | 1983 |
| Died | 2022 | 2023 |
| Raised | $202M | Public company (SIVB) |
| Peak | $202M raised | $209B assets |
| Primary Cause | Unit Economics | Unit Economics |
// WHY EACH FAILED
🔥 Kueski (2022 crisis)
Unit Economics
Kueski, Mexico's largest buy-now-pay-later platform, raised $202M and reached 1M monthly users. In 2022 rising interest rates globally compressed BNPL margins — the cost of capital exceeded the yield on consumer loans. Kueski laid off 15% of its workforce in 2022 and restructured its lending model to survive. It remained operational but at significantly reduced scale.
// LESSON
BNPL models are levered bets on low interest rates. Model your unit economics at 3x current rates before raising. If the model breaks at 3x, the business breaks when rates normalize.
BNPL models are levered bets on low interest rates. Model your unit economics at 3x current rates before raising. If the model breaks at 3x, the business breaks when rates normalize.
🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
Unit Economics
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023 after a bank run driven by duration mismatch. SVB had invested deposits in long-duration bonds during low-rate periods. When rates rose, those bonds lost value. SVB announced a $1.8B loss on bond sales and a capital raise — triggering a $42B bank run in 24 hours. The FDIC seized SVB on March 10, 2023 — the second-largest bank failure in US history.
// LESSON
Asset-liability duration matching is not optional for banks. Investing short-term deposits in long-term bonds is a structural bet against rising rates. SVB had $80B in long-duration bonds when the Fed began the fastest rate rise cycle in 40 years.
Asset-liability duration matching is not optional for banks. Investing short-term deposits in long-term bonds is a structural bet against rising rates. SVB had $80B in long-duration bonds when the Fed began the fastest rate rise cycle in 40 years.
// IN THE SIMULATION
Kueski triggers BNPL_MARGIN_COMPRESSION at a RATE_RISE macro event. The simulation flags BNPL models as structurally rate-sensitive — a 200bps rate increase compresses margins to negative in consumer credit with thin spreads.
SVB triggers DURATION_MISMATCH_BANK_RUN — the simulation models banks with long-duration bond portfolios as having existential rate sensitivity. A 400bps rate rise on a long-duration portfolio creates mark-to-market losses that exceed capital when forced to sell.
// EXPLORE FURTHER