All autopsies

// STARTUP COMPARISON

Klar Argentina vs Silicon Valley Bank

Klar Argentina failed in 2022 due to Regulation. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.

METRIC🔥 Klar Argentina🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
SectorFintechFintech
CountryArgentinaUSA
Founded20191983
Died20222023
Raised$70MPublic company (SIVB)
Peak$70M raised$209B assets
Primary CauseRegulationUnit Economics

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 Klar Argentina
Regulation
Klar launched in Argentina as a digital bank targeting the underbanked. Argentina's persistent hyperinflation (over 100% annually by 2022) and strict foreign exchange controls (cepo cambiario) made it impossible to build a sustainable banking product. USD-denominated deposits lost value in ARS terms; ARS deposits lost value in USD terms. Klar exited Argentina in 2022 to focus exclusively on Mexico.
// LESSON
Consumer fintech requires monetary stability. Launching a neobank in an economy with 100% annual inflation and foreign exchange controls is not a market opportunity — it is a monetary risk management problem that no product can solve.
🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
Unit Economics
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023 after a bank run driven by duration mismatch. SVB had invested deposits in long-duration bonds during low-rate periods. When rates rose, those bonds lost value. SVB announced a $1.8B loss on bond sales and a capital raise — triggering a $42B bank run in 24 hours. The FDIC seized SVB on March 10, 2023 — the second-largest bank failure in US history.
// LESSON
Asset-liability duration matching is not optional for banks. Investing short-term deposits in long-term bonds is a structural bet against rising rates. SVB had $80B in long-duration bonds when the Fed began the fastest rate rise cycle in 40 years.

// IN THE SIMULATION

Klar Argentina triggers HYPERINFLATION_MODEL_BREAK + FX_CONTROL_LOCK simultaneously. The simulation models Argentina as a separate macro regime — consumer fintech unit economics require stable currency to calculate LTV. Both break simultaneously above 50% annual inflation.

SVB triggers DURATION_MISMATCH_BANK_RUN — the simulation models banks with long-duration bond portfolios as having existential rate sensitivity. A 400bps rate rise on a long-duration portfolio creates mark-to-market losses that exceed capital when forced to sell.

// EXPLORE FURTHER