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// STARTUP COMPARISON

Geopagos (2022 crisis) vs Silicon Valley Bank

Geopagos (2022 crisis) failed in 2022 due to Unit Economics. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Both failed for the same reason — Unit Economics.

METRIC🔥 Geopagos (2022 crisis)🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
SectorFintechFintech
CountryArgentinaUSA
Founded20131983
Died20222023
Raised$35MPublic company (SIVB)
Peak$35M raised$209B assets
Primary CauseUnit EconomicsUnit Economics

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 Geopagos (2022 crisis)
Unit Economics
Geopagos provided white-label payment acceptance infrastructure to banks and fintechs across Latin America. After raising $35M and processing billions in payments, the 2022 fintech funding crunch hit infrastructure plays hard. Geopagos's bank clients slowed implementation timelines and reduced scope of projects. Unable to maintain its burn rate without a new funding round, the company underwent restructuring and significant layoffs.
// LESSON
Infrastructure plays selling to banks have elongated revenue recognition cycles. You need 18-24 months of runway beyond the point you expect the first enterprise contract to close. If you don't have it, you run out before you get paid.
🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
Unit Economics
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023 after a bank run driven by duration mismatch. SVB had invested deposits in long-duration bonds during low-rate periods. When rates rose, those bonds lost value. SVB announced a $1.8B loss on bond sales and a capital raise — triggering a $42B bank run in 24 hours. The FDIC seized SVB on March 10, 2023 — the second-largest bank failure in US history.
// LESSON
Asset-liability duration matching is not optional for banks. Investing short-term deposits in long-term bonds is a structural bet against rising rates. SVB had $80B in long-duration bonds when the Fed began the fastest rate rise cycle in 40 years.

// IN THE SIMULATION

Geopagos triggers B2B_SALES_CYCLE_RISK — bank client implementations have 12-18 month sales cycles. In a funding crunch, runway runs out before the enterprise revenue materializes. The simulation flags infrastructure companies with >80% bank-client revenue as having elongated revenue recognition risk.

SVB triggers DURATION_MISMATCH_BANK_RUN — the simulation models banks with long-duration bond portfolios as having existential rate sensitivity. A 400bps rate rise on a long-duration portfolio creates mark-to-market losses that exceed capital when forced to sell.

// EXPLORE FURTHER

Full Geopagos (2022 crisis) autopsy →Full Silicon Valley Bank autopsy →More Unit Economics failures →All Fintech autopsies →