All autopsies

// STARTUP COMPARISON

Fondea vs Silicon Valley Bank

Fondea failed in 2019 due to Regulation. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.

METRIC🔥 Fondea🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
SectorFintechFintech
CountryMexicoUSA
Founded20141983
Died20192023
Raised$5MPublic company (SIVB)
Peak$500M MXN loans originated$209B assets
Primary CauseRegulationUnit Economics

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 Fondea
Regulation
Fondea was one of Mexico's first peer-to-peer lending platforms. After originating over $500M MXN in loans, Mexico's Fintech Law (enacted March 2018) required P2P platforms to obtain an ITF (Institución de Tecnología Financiera) license. The compliance cost and capital requirements to obtain the ITF license exceeded what Fondea could raise. It returned funds to investors and shut down in 2019.
// LESSON
Regulatory compliance is not optional in fintech — it is a capital requirement that must be modeled from day one. If the cost of getting licensed can kill you, build to get licensed before you scale.
🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
Unit Economics
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023 after a bank run driven by duration mismatch. SVB had invested deposits in long-duration bonds during low-rate periods. When rates rose, those bonds lost value. SVB announced a $1.8B loss on bond sales and a capital raise — triggering a $42B bank run in 24 hours. The FDIC seized SVB on March 10, 2023 — the second-largest bank failure in US history.
// LESSON
Asset-liability duration matching is not optional for banks. Investing short-term deposits in long-term bonds is a structural bet against rising rates. SVB had $80B in long-duration bonds when the Fed began the fastest rate rise cycle in 40 years.

// IN THE SIMULATION

Fondea triggers COMPLIANCE_CAPITAL_REQUIREMENT — the simulation models new fintech regulations as capital events. If the compliance cost exceeds 12 months of operating runway, the platform cannot survive the regulatory transition.

SVB triggers DURATION_MISMATCH_BANK_RUN — the simulation models banks with long-duration bond portfolios as having existential rate sensitivity. A 400bps rate rise on a long-duration portfolio creates mark-to-market losses that exceed capital when forced to sell.

// EXPLORE FURTHER