All autopsies

// STARTUP COMPARISON

Fintual (regulatory crisis) vs Silicon Valley Bank

Fintual (regulatory crisis) failed in 2020 due to Regulation. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.

METRIC🔥 Fintual (regulatory crisis)🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
SectorFintechFintech
CountryChileUSA
Founded20171983
Died20202023
Raised$8MPublic company (SIVB)
Peak$150M AUM$209B assets
Primary CauseRegulationUnit Economics

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 Fintual (regulatory crisis)
Regulation
Fintual, Chile's leading robo-advisor, grew to $150M AUM. In 2019 the CMF (Chilean financial regulator) opened an investigation into whether Fintual's operations complied with Chilean securities law requirements for investment advisors. The investigation lasted months, slowing customer acquisition and triggering fund outflows as clients worried about regulatory status. Fintual ultimately resolved the regulatory issues and survived, but the crisis cost significant growth momentum.
// LESSON
Regulatory investigations freeze growth regardless of outcome. In fintech, the investigation itself — not just the result — damages customer trust and acquisition. Front-load regulatory compliance investment before it becomes an investigation.
🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
Unit Economics
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023 after a bank run driven by duration mismatch. SVB had invested deposits in long-duration bonds during low-rate periods. When rates rose, those bonds lost value. SVB announced a $1.8B loss on bond sales and a capital raise — triggering a $42B bank run in 24 hours. The FDIC seized SVB on March 10, 2023 — the second-largest bank failure in US history.
// LESSON
Asset-liability duration matching is not optional for banks. Investing short-term deposits in long-term bonds is a structural bet against rising rates. SVB had $80B in long-duration bonds when the Fed began the fastest rate rise cycle in 40 years.

// IN THE SIMULATION

Fintual triggers REGULATORY_INVESTIGATION_FREEZE — the simulation models open regulatory investigations as causing 40-60% growth slowdown even when ultimately resolved. The uncertainty itself is the damage.

SVB triggers DURATION_MISMATCH_BANK_RUN — the simulation models banks with long-duration bond portfolios as having existential rate sensitivity. A 400bps rate rise on a long-duration portfolio creates mark-to-market losses that exceed capital when forced to sell.

// EXPLORE FURTHER