All autopsies

// STARTUP COMPARISON

Credijusto / Finerio crisis vs Silicon Valley Bank

Credijusto / Finerio crisis failed in 2022 due to Founder Chaos. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.

METRIC🔥 Credijusto / Finerio crisis🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
SectorFintechFintech
CountryMexicoUSA
Founded20151983
Died20222023
Raised$170MPublic company (SIVB)
Peak$170M raised$209B assets
Primary CauseFounder ChaosUnit Economics

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 Credijusto / Finerio crisis
Founder Chaos
Credijusto, Mexico's leading SME lender with $170M raised, merged with personal finance app Finerio in 2021 to form Covalto. CEO Allan Apoj was removed by the board in 2022 following disputes over strategy and governance. The company underwent significant restructuring, layoffs, and a rebrand. The merger's synergies did not materialize as planned.
// LESSON
Merging two struggling fintechs does not create one strong fintech. It creates one larger struggling fintech with twice the governance complexity. Fix the individual businesses before combining them.
🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
Unit Economics
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023 after a bank run driven by duration mismatch. SVB had invested deposits in long-duration bonds during low-rate periods. When rates rose, those bonds lost value. SVB announced a $1.8B loss on bond sales and a capital raise — triggering a $42B bank run in 24 hours. The FDIC seized SVB on March 10, 2023 — the second-largest bank failure in US history.
// LESSON
Asset-liability duration matching is not optional for banks. Investing short-term deposits in long-term bonds is a structural bet against rising rates. SVB had $80B in long-duration bonds when the Fed began the fastest rate rise cycle in 40 years.

// IN THE SIMULATION

Credijusto triggers MERGER_SYNERGY_FAILURE + CEO_BOARD_CONFLICT simultaneously. The simulation models forced mergers between SME lending and consumer fintech as high-risk — the customer bases, risk models, and cultures rarely align.

SVB triggers DURATION_MISMATCH_BANK_RUN — the simulation models banks with long-duration bond portfolios as having existential rate sensitivity. A 400bps rate rise on a long-duration portfolio creates mark-to-market losses that exceed capital when forced to sell.

// EXPLORE FURTHER