// STARTUP COMPARISON

Afterpay (Block acquisition) vs Silicon Valley Bank

Afterpay (Block acquisition) failed in 2022 due to Acquisition Gone Wrong. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.

METRIC	🔥 Afterpay (Block acquisition)	🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
Sector	Fintech	Fintech
Country	Australia	USA
Founded	2014	1983
Died	2022	2023
Raised	Public (ASX)	Public company (SIVB)
Peak	A$39B market cap	$209B assets
Primary Cause	Acquisition Gone Wrong	Unit Economics

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 Afterpay (Block acquisition)

Acquisition Gone Wrong

Afterpay was Australia's BNPL pioneer, reaching A$39B market cap. Jack Dorsey's Block acquired Afterpay in January 2022 for $29B — the largest-ever Australian tech acquisition. The deal closed at the exact moment BNPL valuations globally began collapsing. Rising interest rates compressed BNPL margins globally. Block's Afterpay segment contributed to significant losses and Block's own stock declined 80%+ from its peak.

// LESSON
Acquisitions that close at category valuation peaks create permanent impairment for the acquirer. The $29B Afterpay deal closed in January 2022 — month one of the global BNPL collapse. Due diligence on category cycle position is as important as company-specific due diligence.

🔥 Silicon Valley Bank

Unit Economics

Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023 after a bank run driven by duration mismatch. SVB had invested deposits in long-duration bonds during low-rate periods. When rates rose, those bonds lost value. SVB announced a $1.8B loss on bond sales and a capital raise — triggering a $42B bank run in 24 hours. The FDIC seized SVB on March 10, 2023 — the second-largest bank failure in US history.

// LESSON
Asset-liability duration matching is not optional for banks. Investing short-term deposits in long-term bonds is a structural bet against rising rates. SVB had $80B in long-duration bonds when the Fed began the fastest rate rise cycle in 40 years.

// IN THE SIMULATION

Afterpay triggers ACQUISITION_PEAK_TIMING_DISASTER — the simulation models M&A deals that close at category valuation peaks as destroying acquirer value. Block paid peak-cycle BNPL multiples that compressed 80%+ within 12 months of closing.

SVB triggers DURATION_MISMATCH_BANK_RUN — the simulation models banks with long-duration bond portfolios as having existential rate sensitivity. A 400bps rate rise on a long-duration portfolio creates mark-to-market losses that exceed capital when forced to sell.

// EXPLORE FURTHER

Full Afterpay (Block acquisition) autopsy →Full Silicon Valley Bank autopsy →More Acquisition Gone Wrong failures →All Fintech autopsies →