All autopsies

// STARTUP COMPARISON

WeWork vs FTX

WeWork failed in 2023 due to Founder Chaos. FTX failed in 2022 due to Fraud. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.

METRIC🔥 WeWork🔥 FTX
SectorReal EstateWeb3
CountryUSAUSA
Founded20102019
Died20232022
Raised$16B$1.8B
Peak$47B valuation$32B valuation
Primary CauseFounder ChaosFraud
Flame %🔥 95%🔥 95%

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 WeWork
Founder Chaos
WeWork's 2019 IPO collapsed when its S-1 revealed $1.9B in losses on $1.8B revenue, a 29x valuation-to-revenue multiple, and Adam Neumann's erratic governance — including charging the company $5.9M for the trademark "We". SoftBank lost $14B. WeWork filed Chapter 11 in November 2023.
// LESSON
A real estate company with yoga is still a real estate company. Narrative premium has a ceiling. The market finds it during IPO due diligence.
🔥 FTX
Fraud
FTX collapsed in November 2022 when CoinDesk revealed that Alameda Research held most assets in FTT token. A bank run followed. $8B in customer funds were missing. Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted in November 2023 and sentenced to 25 years in prison.
// LESSON
Customer funds are not operating capital. This is accounting 101, not a crypto insight. The collapse was a fraud problem, not a crypto problem.

// IN THE SIMULATION

WeWork maxes out the NARRATIVE_PREMIUM variable then crashes to zero at IPO_ATTEMPT. The simulation caps narrative premium at 3x revenue. 29x triggers a hard correction event.

FTX triggers CUSTOMER_FUNDS_MISMATCH at the first liquidity event. The simulation tracks segregated customer funds as a hard constraint — not a suggestion.

// EXPLORE FURTHER