// STARTUP COMPARISON
Rappi (2022 crisis) vs Convoy
Rappi (2022 crisis) failed in 2022 due to Unit Economics. Convoy failed in 2023 due to Bad Timing. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.
| METRIC | 🔥 Rappi (2022 crisis) | 🔥 Convoy |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Marketplace | Marketplace |
| Country | Colombia | USA |
| Founded | 2015 | 2015 |
| Died | 2022 | 2023 |
| Raised | $2B | $1B |
| Peak | $5.25B valuation | $3.8B valuation |
| Primary Cause | Unit Economics | Bad Timing |
// WHY EACH FAILED
Super-app strategies require the core vertical to be profitable before adding adjacencies. Each new vertical is a bet funded by the core. If the core bleeds, every adjacency accelerates the bleeding.
Digital freight marketplaces have revenue directly tied to freight market cycles. The technology doesn't create volume — it competes for existing volume. In a freight recession, the best technology in the world generates half the revenue at half the volume.
// IN THE SIMULATION
Rappi triggers SUPER_APP_UNIT_ECONOMICS_CRISIS — the simulation models multi-vertical platforms as carrying compounding subsidy costs. Each added vertical adds CAC without proportionally increasing LTV until the core vertical achieves profitability first.
Convoy triggers FREIGHT_CYCLE_COLLAPSE — the simulation models digital freight brokers as having revenue tightly correlated with spot freight market volumes. In a freight recession, take-rate models generate insufficient revenue to sustain operations regardless of technology quality.
// EXPLORE FURTHER