// STARTUP COMPARISON
Rapiddo vs Convoy
Rapiddo failed in 2020 due to Competition. Convoy failed in 2023 due to Bad Timing. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.
| METRIC | 🔥 Rapiddo | 🔥 Convoy |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Marketplace | Marketplace |
| Country | Brazil | USA |
| Founded | 2018 | 2015 |
| Died | 2020 | 2023 |
| Raised | $15M | $1B |
| Peak | $15M raised | $3.8B valuation |
| Primary Cause | Competition | Bad Timing |
// WHY EACH FAILED
In delivery, competing against SoftBank capital requires either a defensible niche (geography, product type, vertical) or an exit. A general-purpose last-mile network cannot survive a subsidized competitor with 20x your capital.
Digital freight marketplaces have revenue directly tied to freight market cycles. The technology doesn't create volume — it competes for existing volume. In a freight recession, the best technology in the world generates half the revenue at half the volume.
// IN THE SIMULATION
Rapiddo triggers DELIVERY_SUBSIDY_RACE — the simulation models local delivery businesses as existentially threatened when SoftBank-backed competitors enter with unlimited subsidies. $15M vs $400M is not a competitive race — it is a timeline.
Convoy triggers FREIGHT_CYCLE_COLLAPSE — the simulation models digital freight brokers as having revenue tightly correlated with spot freight market volumes. In a freight recession, take-rate models generate insufficient revenue to sustain operations regardless of technology quality.
// EXPLORE FURTHER