// STARTUP COMPARISON
Olist (2022 restructuring) vs Convoy
Olist (2022 restructuring) failed in 2022 due to Unit Economics. Convoy failed in 2023 due to Bad Timing. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.
| METRIC | 🔥 Olist (2022 restructuring) | 🔥 Convoy |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Marketplace | Marketplace |
| Country | Brazil | USA |
| Founded | 2015 | 2015 |
| Died | 2022 | 2023 |
| Raised | $200M | $1B |
| Peak | $1.4B valuation | $3.8B valuation |
| Primary Cause | Unit Economics | Bad Timing |
// WHY EACH FAILED
Acquisitions made at the top of a COVID-era growth cycle create cost bases sized for peak-scenario revenue. When growth normalizes, the acquired assets become overhead. Size acquisitions for trend growth, not peak-cycle growth.
Digital freight marketplaces have revenue directly tied to freight market cycles. The technology doesn't create volume — it competes for existing volume. In a freight recession, the best technology in the world generates half the revenue at half the volume.
// IN THE SIMULATION
Olist triggers ACQUISITION_COST_BASE_TRAP — the simulation models platform companies that acquire complementary businesses during a growth peak as creating a fixed cost base they cannot sustain when growth normalizes.
Convoy triggers FREIGHT_CYCLE_COLLAPSE — the simulation models digital freight brokers as having revenue tightly correlated with spot freight market volumes. In a freight recession, take-rate models generate insufficient revenue to sustain operations regardless of technology quality.
// EXPLORE FURTHER