// STARTUP COMPARISON
NotCo (2023 crisis) vs Bulb Energy
NotCo (2023 crisis) failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Bulb Energy failed in 2022 due to Bad Timing. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.
| METRIC | 🔥 NotCo (2023 crisis) | 🔥 Bulb Energy |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer | Consumer |
| Country | Chile | UK |
| Founded | 2015 | 2015 |
| Died | 2023 | 2022 |
| Raised | $350M | £165M |
| Peak | $1.5B valuation | 1.7M customers |
| Primary Cause | Unit Economics | Bad Timing |
// WHY EACH FAILED
🔥 NotCo (2023 crisis)
Unit Economics
NotCo, Chile's first and most prominent foodtech unicorn, used AI to create plant-based versions of animal products. It raised $350M and reached a $1.5B valuation. In 2023 the plant-based food category globally faced a sharp consumer demand decline — Beyond Meat's stock fell 80%. NotCo laid off over 30% of its workforce in 2023, cut SKUs, and exited several markets to focus on profitability.
// LESSON
Category demand is not in your control. You can build the best plant-based burger on earth — if consumers decide they'd rather have a real burger, no AI fixes the demand problem. Category bets require category timing bets.
Category demand is not in your control. You can build the best plant-based burger on earth — if consumers decide they'd rather have a real burger, no AI fixes the demand problem. Category bets require category timing bets.
🔥 Bulb Energy
Bad Timing
Bulb Energy served 1.7M UK customers on fixed green energy tariffs. In 2021 wholesale gas prices surged over 400%. Locked into fixed prices, Bulb could not pass costs to customers. It entered UK government special administration in November 2021 — the largest UK energy company failure in history. Octopus Energy acquired it in 2022 for £2.4B.
// LESSON
Fixed-price contracts in commodity markets are inherently short positions. When the commodity moves against you at scale, no brand equity absorbs the loss.
Fixed-price contracts in commodity markets are inherently short positions. When the commodity moves against you at scale, no brand equity absorbs the loss.
// EXPLORE FURTHER