// STARTUP COMPARISON
Loft (2022 crisis) vs Spotahome
Loft (2022 crisis) failed in 2022 due to Unit Economics. Spotahome failed in 2020 due to Bad Timing. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.
| METRIC | 🔥 Loft (2022 crisis) | 🔥 Spotahome |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Proptech | Proptech |
| Country | Brazil | Spain |
| Founded | 2018 | 2014 |
| Died | 2022 | 2020 |
| Raised | $788M | $80M |
| Peak | $2.9B valuation | $80M raised |
| Primary Cause | Unit Economics | Bad Timing |
// WHY EACH FAILED
🔥 Loft (2022 crisis)
Unit Economics
Loft, a Brazilian technology-enabled real estate brokerage, raised $788M and reached a $2.9B valuation. In 2022 Brazil's mortgage rates rose sharply (SELIC rate exceeded 13%), dramatically reducing home buying demand. Loft lay off approximately 150 employees, reduced its balance sheet of owned homes, and retrenched to core brokerage from its iBuying activities. The company survived restructured.
// LESSON
iBuying requires a low-rate environment to function. When mortgage rates double, buyer demand halves and holding costs double. iBuying in a rising rate environment is a leveraged bet against the central bank. Model it accordingly.
iBuying requires a low-rate environment to function. When mortgage rates double, buyer demand halves and holding costs double. iBuying in a rising rate environment is a leveraged bet against the central bank. Model it accordingly.
🔥 Spotahome
Bad Timing
Spotahome built a platform for mid-term furnished rentals (1-12 months) targeting international students, expats, and digital nomads — all users whose movement required open borders and urban migration. COVID eliminated all three customer segments simultaneously: no international students, no corporate expats, no digital nomads. The company laid off 50% of staff in April 2020, pivoted to domestic rentals, and significantly scaled down.
// LESSON
When all your customer segments depend on the same macro condition (free cross-border mobility), your diversified customer base is actually a concentrated risk. Spotahome had students, expats, and nomads — and lost all three at once.
When all your customer segments depend on the same macro condition (free cross-border mobility), your diversified customer base is actually a concentrated risk. Spotahome had students, expats, and nomads — and lost all three at once.
// IN THE SIMULATION
Loft triggers IBUYING_RATE_SHOCK — the simulation models iBuying (holding owned inventory) as carrying the maximum exposure to interest rate rises. Higher rates reduce buyer demand and increase holding costs simultaneously, squeezing both ends of the P&L.
Spotahome triggers MOBILITY_DEPENDENCY_COLLAPSE — the simulation models mid-term rental platforms as having three correlated demand inputs (students, expats, nomads) that all go to zero under the same macro shock.
// EXPLORE FURTHER