All autopsies

// STARTUP COMPARISON

Konfío vs Google+

Konfío failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Google+ failed in 2019 due to Product Failure. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.

METRIC🔥 Konfío🔥 Google+
SectorFintechSocial
CountryMexicoUSA
Founded20132011
Died20232019
Raised$400MInternal (Alphabet)
Peak$1.2B valuation500M accounts
Primary CauseUnit EconomicsProduct Failure

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 Konfío
Unit Economics
Konfío became Mexico's SME lending unicorn at $1.2B, using alternative data to underwrite loans for small businesses underserved by traditional banks. Post-COVID economic stress elevated non-performing loans (NPLs) beyond models, while rising rates compressed net interest margins. The company laid off 30% of its workforce in 2022 and exited some lending verticals. The challenge of underwriting Mexican SMEs at scale — businesses without formal financial records — proved harder than the underwriting models suggested.
// LESSON
Alternative data underwriting for Mexican SMEs works in economic expansion. The models are trained on data from good times. The test is always a recession, and the models never saw one.
🔥 Google+
Product Failure
Google+ launched June 2011 with forced integration across Google products. Despite 500M accounts, daily active users were near zero — most accounts were created involuntarily through YouTube or Gmail sign-ins. A data breach affecting 500,000 users in 2018 gave Google cover to shut it down in April 2019.
// LESSON
Distribution is not adoption. Forced sign-ups are not users. You can mandate account creation. You cannot mandate that people care.

// EXPLORE FURTHER