All autopsies

// STARTUP COMPARISON

EasySi vs Wealthfront (acquisition collapse)

EasySi failed in 2019 due to Ran Out of Money. Wealthfront (acquisition collapse) failed in 2022 due to Acquisition Gone Wrong. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.

METRIC🔥 EasySi🔥 Wealthfront (acquisition collapse)
SectorFintechFintech
CountryMexicoUSA
Founded20152008
Died20192022
Raised$8M$204M
Peak$8M raised$1.4B valuation
Primary CauseRan Out of MoneyAcquisition Gone Wrong

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 EasySi
Ran Out of Money
EasySi provided working capital loans to Mexican small businesses. After raising $8M it scaled aggressively but Mexico's 2019 economic contraction raised default rates above sustainable levels. Unable to raise a Series B in a deteriorating macro environment, EasySi shut down in 2019.
// LESSON
SME lending in emerging markets is highly sensitive to macro cycles. Build capital buffers for 2x your expected default rate before scaling. The cycle always turns.
🔥 Wealthfront (acquisition collapse)
Acquisition Gone Wrong
UBS agreed to acquire Wealthfront for $1.4B in January 2022. Nine months later, UBS cancelled the deal citing changed market conditions. The acquisition collapse left Wealthfront in limbo — unable to raise at its previous valuation, the founding CEO resigned, and the company was acquired by a holding company at a significantly reduced valuation.
// LESSON
A cancelled acquisition is worse than no acquisition offer. The deal process exposes financial details to the acquirer, anchors valuation expectations for future investors, and demoralizes the team. Build an acquisition process that terminates quickly or not at all.

// IN THE SIMULATION

EasySi triggers MACRO_CREDIT_CONTRACTION — a simulation event where rising default rates compress SME lending margins simultaneously with a funding market freeze. Both levers hit at the same time.

Wealthfront triggers ACQUISITION_DEAL_COLLAPSE — the simulation models cancelled acquisitions as creating a unique crisis: the company is neither independent nor acquired. Competitors know the price, investors know the weakness, and the founding team faces a demoralization event.

// EXPLORE FURTHER