All autopsies

// STARTUP COMPARISON

Addi (2023 crisis) vs LendingClub (2016 crisis)

Addi (2023 crisis) failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. LendingClub (2016 crisis) failed in 2016 due to Founder Chaos. Different causes, different sectors, different eras — but the same simulation outcome.

METRIC🔥 Addi (2023 crisis)🔥 LendingClub (2016 crisis)
SectorFintechFintech
CountryColombiaUSA
Founded20182006
Died20232016
Raised$400M$1.3B
Peak$400M raised$9B valuation
Primary CauseUnit EconomicsFounder Chaos

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 Addi (2023 crisis)
Unit Economics
Addi built a buy-now-pay-later platform for Colombian retail, raising $400M and processing billions in transactions. When global interest rates rose sharply in 2022-2023, Addi's cost of capital exceeded its loan yields. The company laid off significant portions of its workforce in 2022 and 2023, paused expansion, and restructured its lending book to focus on lower-risk, higher-margin segments.
// LESSON
Emerging market BNPL carries currency risk on top of rate risk. When dollar funding costs rise while local currencies weaken, the model breaks on both ends simultaneously. Price this risk into your unit economics from day one.
🔥 LendingClub (2016 crisis)
Founder Chaos
LendingClub CEO Renaud Laplanche resigned in May 2016 after an internal review found that $22M in loans had been sold to an investor with falsified application dates, and that Laplanche had failed to disclose a personal conflict of interest. The stock fell 50% in a single day. LendingClub survived but spent years rebuilding institutional trust.
// LESSON
For marketplace lenders, loan data integrity is the product. Falsifying origination dates is not a compliance technicality — it invalidates every institutional investor's credit risk model and destroys the trust that marketplace lending is built on.

// IN THE SIMULATION

Addi triggers BNPL_RATE_SQUEEZE — the simulation models emerging market BNPL as doubly exposed to rate rises: cost of capital rises in USD while local currency devalues, creating a spread compression that no product change can fix.

LendingClub triggers FINTECH_FOUNDER_DATA_MANIPULATION — the simulation models loan data integrity as a hard constraint for marketplace lenders. When origination data is falsified, every institutional investor's credit model becomes invalid simultaneously.

// EXPLORE FURTHER